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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."