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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still